The Blue State Kool-Aid Acid Test

It’s the economy AND the last 48 Hours, stupid.
Why is Karl Smiling?

Every pollster, pundit and commentator is buzzing with the story. Republicans are so afraid they are eating their own. Democrats are already picking out new curtains for their take-over of the Congress, and possibly the Senate. It’s a dramatic media moment of Pre-History.

Don’t get your hopes up America.

The prevailing wisdom is flawed to the bone and no honorable pundit worth his salt should be saying otherwise. The media are crying so hard at the funeral that they are forgetting to see if there is really a body in the ground. Every relevant article written about this election starts out: “The Democrats are poised to take over the House and make gains in the Senate”. Then follows, inevitably, the most under-reported word in American polling.

“Unless”

Here are the two reasons why the Democrats might not make significant gains on Tuesday.

“Democrats are poised to take over the House and make gains in the Senate unless an unforeseen dramatic event takes place. The next three days is an important test of America’s free press and, despite some appearances of valiant effort, the test may well be failed to Karl Rove’s history-making advantage.

Has a single public pollster asked: “Are you aware that Saddam Hussein will be sentenced to death on Sunday?” The (we presume death) sentence will appear as Monday morning’s headline in 100% of the news outlets. And it will make all the difference.

“Democrats are poised to take over the House and make gains in the Senate unless Rove can influence the undecided votes in key districts. The most ignored election factor in the past three cycles is the combined success of Republican gerrymandering and 72 hour action plans. The polls may be accurate when they report that 70% of Americans want a fresh start in Congress. What they don’t reflect is that 70% of the country does not readily equate with 51% of the voters who matter. Everyone thinks the Christians will stay home and the disunited non-voting Democrats will show up. That seems naïve to me.

The media polls are usually off by a margin of plus or minus 3-5%. Karl Rove lives in that margin. Karl can keep his job if he: A: Gets 1 or 2% of those polled to change their vote to Republican. (Most likely with a big scary headline, like Saddam being sentenced to death.) B: Quietly controls that 3-5% margin of error. (With his proven 72 hour plan, gerrymandered districts and Sin-to-Win campaign tactics.) This will get him 5-8% more votes per race than the national polls indicate he has. That will keep the Senate and maybe even the House in Republican control.

I hope your vote proves me wrong.

Thanks for your time,

A.